OEM Backlog Depletion & Delivery Runway Radar
Real-time tracking of commercial aircraft production velocity, annual delivery targets, and backlog depletion timelines across Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, and COMAC as of 2026-09-17.
Key Facts
- Global commercial airliner order books stand at 15,850 unfilled firm commitments across Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, and COMAC.
- Airbus holds 8,645 unfilled orders (54.5% market share), backed by four A320 final assembly lines globally.
- Boeing maintains a backlog of 6,210 aircraft (39.2% market share), centered on the 737 MAX ramp and Charleston 787 production.
- Current production velocity represents an average backlog burn runway of 7 to 11 years across key single-aisle families.
Airbus
Boeing
Embraer
COMAC
Key Aircraft Program Backlogs & Delivery Lead Times
Comparing unfilled orders, monthly factory build rates, and delivery slot availability by aircraft model.
| Aircraft Program | Manufacturer | Segment | Backlog Units | Monthly Build Rate | Target Rate | Estimated Delivery Lead Time | Primary Assembly Sites |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airbus A320neo / A321neo / A321XLR | Airbus | Single-Aisle Narrowbody | 5,420 | 52 / mo | 75 / mo | 7.8 Years (Sold out to 2033) | Hamburg, Toulouse, Mobile, Tianjin |
| Boeing 737 MAX (MAX 7, 8, 9, 10) | Boeing | Single-Aisle Narrowbody | 4,310 | 34 / mo | 50 / mo | 10.5 Years (Sold out to 2036) | Renton, Washington |
| Boeing 787 Dreamliner (8, 9, 10) | Boeing | Widebody Twin-Aisle | 840 | 6 / mo | 10 / mo | 8.2 Years | North Charleston, South Carolina |
| Airbus A350 (900, 1000, A350F) | Airbus | Widebody Twin-Aisle | 710 | 6 / mo | 10 / mo | 7.4 Years | Toulouse, France |
| Airbus A220 (100, 300) | Airbus | Small Narrowbody (100-150 seats) | 560 | 6 / mo | 14 / mo | 6.5 Years | Mirabel (Canada), Mobile (USA) |
| Embraer E-Jets E2 (E190-E2, E195-E2) | Embraer | Regional Jet (90-146 seats) | 240 | 4 / mo | 7 / mo | 4.8 Years | Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil |
| Boeing 777X (777-8, 777-9, 777-8F) | Boeing | Heavy Widebody Flagship | 520 | 2 / mo | 4 / mo | Certification Pending / 6.5 Years | Everett, Washington |
| Airbus A330neo (A330-800, A330-900) | Airbus | Widebody Twin-Aisle | 195 | 3 / mo | 4 / mo | 4.5 Years | Toulouse, France |
Recent Verified Factory Deliveries & Acceptance Flights
Commercial airframes newly delivered from Boeing, Airbus, and Embraer assembly centers.
| Tail / Reg | Aircraft Model | Manufacturer | Customer Airline | Financing Lessor | Assembly Center | Delivery Route | Delivery Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N842DN | Airbus A321neo | Airbus | Delta Air Lines | Air Lease Corporation | Mobile Downtown Airport (BFM) | BFM -> ATL | 2026-09-18 |
| N324AA | Boeing 787-9 | Boeing | American Airlines | AerCap | Charleston International Airport (CHS) | CHS -> DFW | 2026-09-17 |
| N28987 | Boeing 737 MAX 8 | Boeing | United Airlines | SMBC Aviation Capital | Boeing Field King County Intl (BFI) | BFI -> ORD | 2026-09-16 |
| G-XWBL | Airbus A350-1000 | Airbus | British Airways | Avolon | Toulouse-Blagnac Airport (TLS) | TLS -> LHR | 2026-09-15 |
| F-HZUL | Airbus A220-300 | Airbus Canada | Air France | Air Lease Corporation | Montreal-Mirabel International Airport (YMX) | YMX -> CDG | 2026-09-14 |
| D-AIEQ | Airbus A321neo | Airbus | Lufthansa | AerCap | Hamburg Finkenwerder Airport (XFW) | XFW -> FRA | 2026-09-13 |
| EI-IHZ | Boeing 737 MAX 8-200 | Boeing | Ryanair | SMBC Aviation Capital | Boeing Field King County Intl (BFI) | BFI -> DUB | 2026-09-12 |
| VT-RTB | Airbus A350-900 | Airbus | Air India | BOC Aviation | Toulouse-Blagnac Airport (TLS) | TLS -> DEL | 2026-09-10 |
| A6-EOZ | Airbus A350-900 | Airbus | Emirates | DAE Capital | Toulouse-Blagnac Airport (TLS) | TLS -> DXB | 2026-09-08 |
| JA894A | Boeing 787-10 | Boeing | All Nippon Airways | ORIX Aviation | Charleston International Airport (CHS) | CHS -> HND | 2026-09-05 |
| N901WN | Boeing 737 MAX 8 | Boeing | Southwest Airlines | Direct Airline Purchase | Boeing Field King County Intl (BFI) | BFI -> PHX | 2026-09-03 |
| TC-LGP | Airbus A350-900 | Airbus | Turkish Airlines | Avolon | Toulouse-Blagnac Airport (TLS) | TLS -> IST | 2026-09-01 |
| 9V-SHY | Boeing 787-10 | Boeing | Singapore Airlines | BOC Aviation | Charleston International Airport (CHS) | CHS -> SIN | 2026-08-28 |
| VH-X4A | Airbus A220-300 | Airbus Canada | Qantas | Direct Airline Purchase | Montreal-Mirabel International Airport (YMX) | YMX -> SYD | 2026-08-25 |
| C-GOIL | Boeing 737 MAX 8 | Boeing | Air Canada | Jackson Square Aviation | Boeing Field King County Intl (BFI) | BFI -> YYZ | 2026-08-22 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a commercial aircraft backlog depletion runway?
The delivery runway measures the number of calendar years required for a manufacturer to fulfill its existing firm order book at its current monthly production and delivery rate, assuming no new orders are placed.
Why are narrowbody delivery lead times stretching past 2032?
Record airline demand for the fuel-efficient A321neo and 737 MAX, combined with post-pandemic aerospace supply chain bottlenecks in casting, forging, and engine sub-assemblies, has capped monthly factory output below airline order appetites.
How do operating lessors circumvent the multi-year OEM backlog?
Operating lessors place speculative multi-billion-dollar block orders with Airbus and Boeing up to a decade in advance. When airlines require rapid fleet expansion, they lease aircraft directly from lessor delivery slots rather than waiting at the back of the OEM queue.
How are delivery handovers verified by Airline Fleet Monitor?
Each handover is verified using transponder telemetry tracking customer acceptance flights departing OEM manufacturing airports (Toulouse, Hamburg, Charleston, Boeing Field, Mobile), cross-referenced with civil aircraft registrations reassigned from test to commercial carrier codes.